IAFT Weekly Economic Review

Last week was a very important event, where participants of currency and stock markets were expecting for quite some time - the US presidential election. Since the preliminary surveys indicated a possible victory of the candidate from the Democratic Party of Hillary Clinton, the US dollar was feeling quite well in many pairs, including pairing with the EUR, British pound, Japanese yen. According to many of analysts, Clinton's presidency did not implied the major changes in foreign policy, and in relation to the United States economy.

Thus the news about the probable victory of the Republican candidate Donald Trump has plunged the markets into a real shock, and their reaction was the large-scale sale of "risky" assets, including the US dollar and stock indices. As a consequence of the sales dollar fell against the yen to 101.20 of support area, the euro rose against him to the area of 13th figure, and the pound - up to resistance of 1.2546. This market reaction in the case of Trump's victory was quite expected, so further development was a complete surprise.

A surprise for many, but not for us, because we have warned that the situation can be changed dramatically at any moment, that exactly what happened. Subsequently, the dollar was bought out, and the yen actively sold off, as a result the dollar/yen exchange rate rose by the end of the week to the area of 107th figure, the euro ended the week by falling to 1.0830. Turn and widespread increase in the dollar can be considered as the development of the next wave of the upward trend, but it can be sensitive to the FRS's comments and, of course, of the new US President, so IAFT traders on the dollar can not lose vigilance, as this can lead to greater losses. LinkList

Best regards, 

International Association of Forex Traders

IAFT Weekly Economic Review

Published last week macroeconomic statistics for Germany and the Eurozone in general was quite good, although it was not enough for euro to be able to develop a recovery against the US dollar after falling last week. All his attempts were limited by resistance in the area of 1.0940, which kept the downside risks at least until 1.0800. But in the last hours, remaining until the end of the trading week, he still was able to break through the resistance and rise up to the level of 1.0992. However, larger scale euro recovery at this point seems unlikely.

Bulls on the British pound, the last week did not give the slightest reason to improve mood. Due to the continuing pressure its attempts to restore in the pair with the US dollar were limited by theresistance in the area of 1.2260. The only positive thing for the pound - is the ability to keep from falling below the 21st figure, the probability of testing of bears the psychological level of 1.2000 remains high. The British faces losses in the pairs with a number of its competitors, and to expect a sharp change of mood of investors is not worth it.

The US dollar was in demand in tandem with the Japanese yen, which allowed him to continue to rise against it and test resistance at 105.53. The intention of the FBI to investigate the case about the e-mails before the elections, as was announced on Friday, has provoked sell-off of dollar, that has allowed the euro and the yen to win back some of the losses incurred earlier. However, its decline was mainly due to profit-taking on long positions and talking about a trend reversal is not necessary. But it should be noted that the current week is rich on events which, like the US presidential elections, can make adjustments to the current situation, about what should not be forgotten by the IAFT traders. BlogLinks

Best regards, 

International Association of Forex Traders

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